DADT, Obama and the no-win situation

With growing impatience at the reluctance of Congress to address the future of Dont Ask, Dont Tell, suit was filed in Federal Court to goad them into action by declaring the law unconstitutional. The matter finally reached the 9th Circuit and was declared just that a month ago. Now the judge has further ordered that enforcement cease world-wide. This is an interesting suit because, like many, it effects the political landscape of the upcoming election from several angles but all of them seem to end badly for President Obama and the Democrats. 

The "gay lobby" has become increasingly restless over the last year at the failure of President Obama to act affirmatively on any of the issues he claimed (either implicitly or explicitly) to champion in 2008. His only gay-rights action to date has been the extension of benefits to same sex couples in federal employ. He has offered lip service as of late, particularly on the issue of DADT, but when the time came to transfer words into action, Obama offered little in the way of Executive muscle to power the issue to a vote in the last session of Congress. 

What complicates the issue of this ruling is that Obama must make the decision on whether the Justice Department should appeal the decision since it is a matter of Federal Policy. The clock is ticking and I do not see pushing it off until after the election to be the answer because he needs something to motivate the young voters to show up in November. He already has asked Justice to appeal the decision declaring the Defense of Marriage Act unconstitutional, but it would me more likely for him to refuse to appeal this decision because it is a policy he is on the record as opposing where he has stated that he does not support gay marriage.

Further complicating the question is the fact that the suit was brought by the Log Cabin Republicans, the nations most prominent conservative gay advocacy group. Thus the Republicans Party can have their cake and eat it too, forcing Obama into making a decision he would rather not make. The timing could not be better and I anticipate that Obama will be forced to not appeal, but still have to loose the initiative on his issue which is so important to many of his supporters. 

Crist, Meek and Rubio's Rumor Mill

A recent article on the Wall Street Journal Online Edition repeated the oft repeated rumor that has been present in the blogosphere almost since Charlie Crist declared himself an Independent: that Democrat Kendrick Meek will drop out of the race and endorse Crist in order to shore up the opposition to a surging Republican Nominee Marco Rubio. The article does not cite any sources, even "highly placed" anonymous ones, which lends to the idea that they are merely repeating the rumor rather than stating a corroborated strategy of the Meek camp. The WSJ editorial page and the online blogs are known to lean towards Republicans, particularly with their recent acquisition by Rupert Murdoch's News-Corp, and their repeating the rumor seems to be more playing into a Rubio strategy than anything else. 

On it's face, the strategy would seem sound, Kendrick Meek will not win this election, even with the recent "blue"
 vote in 2008 for Florida, the state still leans to the center-right. Meek's power base exists only in the African-American and non-Cuban Latino vote. Even South Florida, Meeks' region, is moving towards Crist after months of being a bastion of Meek's support. Crist is more broadly supported regionally and is still pulling in some Republican support even if it is in the teens. Crist also has the ability to garner African-American support (he was once famously called Florida's First Black Governor). But, any appearance of Crist becoming a de factoDemocratic Nominee would completely dry up much of Crist's shaky center-left coalition. In particular, any endorsement from Meek would require Crist to make a committment on whom he would caucus with (likely the Democrats), which would essentially kill Republican and some of the Independent support. 

Far more likely is that this rumor began in the Rubio camp, this was part of his strategy in the primaries as well, conservative bloggers, many of them open Rubio supporters repeating rumors of Crist joining the Democratic party even when Rubio was still behind in the polls. It became such a meme in Republican circles that it became almost an article of faith to some, despite the paucity of evidence. However, in the end it became a partially self-fulfilling prophecy when Rubio overtook Crist in the polls based at least partially on Republican doubts about his loyalty, a loyalty rarely questioned throughout his 25-year political career. 

In short, it will be highly unlikely for Meek to drop out and even less likely that Crist would accept his endorsement. A far more likely strategy (of collusion were to actually occur between Crist and Meek) would be for Meek to continue to tack farther to the left  allowing Crist to establish himself as the sane moderate sitting between the Tea Party and the whacko leftists.