Florida Times-Union reporter Abel Harding reported today that GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott has decided to ask Representative Jennifer Carroll, a African-American First Coast Lawmaker, to be his running mate in the general election. The article notes that Carroll is a good choice on its face, even when consideration of her voting record is not in play. As has often been the case with Republican executive politicians (and others running for office) in the last 20 years, there is a kneejerk reaction to indulge in the very “identity politics” they so abhor in their opponents. This phenomenon primarily occurs when the opponent is some flavor of minority themselves, in an effort to fight the perception of the “rich white guy” party. The most prominent example, is of course the selection of Sarah Palin by John McCain in 2008 in a clear effort to capitalize on the loss of Hillary Clinton in the primary. There are other examples, the recruiting of Alan Keyes to run against Obama for Senate in 2004 and the encouragement of First Coast Young Republicans President and African American Chris Nawiseki to run against Corrine Brown. Almost as puzzling, at least in the case of running mates, is the tendency of the Minority candidate to reciprocate by selecting an “old white guy” of their own, for every Sarah Palin there is a Joe Biden and for Jennifer Carroll, there is Alex Sink’s running mate Sen. Rod Smith. Both of these candidates come with benefits and detriments of their own outside of their genetic makeup.
Rep. Carroll is an interesting choice for Scott and may present some unique challenges once one reaches past the obvious benefits. Carroll is well liked and experienced legislator. She is a 20-year U.S. Navy veteran and has a steady, if unremarkable legislative career in the House. She brings much needed legislative experience to the campaign of political neophyte Scott. She is also a resident of the First Coast one of two areas Scott needs to turn out big for him in November, the other being the heavily conservative and populous southwest which is where Scott keeps his own residence. The biggest problem, however, is one of geography, Scott is going to need heavy turnout for him in the “I-4 Corridor” which has rapidly become the key to Florida sought after by political strategists. Scott ignores this region at his own peril, Charlie Crist won the 2006 election by such a convincing margin in no small part by locking down the Corridor, Barack Obama did the same thing in 2008, running more ads in the Tampa and Orlando markets than any other city in the state. Jennifer Carroll will not be the sweetener that Scott needs to win this crucial swing constituency that is already weary after he beat one of their own, Bill McCollum, in such a hard-fought primary.
Alex Sink comes with a similar set of issues as Rick Scott, she is a relatively unknown political neophyte with a thin governmental resume and many years in a business which does not inspire the confidence of the masses (banking) with an institution has been mostly portrayed negatively as of late (Bank of America). She also picked a legislative running mate from North Florida, likely for similar reasons as Scott. Rod Smith is well known as the State Attorney who prosecuted Gainesville serial killer Danny Rolling he leveraged that career into a seat in the State Senate and two unsuccessful runs for Governor. Unlike Scott, however, Sink is well known and well liked in the corridor. Both she and her husband (Failed 2002 Gubernatorial Candidate Bill McBride) are civic leaders in the Tampa area and have an extensive network in Orlando through McBrides law firm, Holland and Knight.
The geographic problem with the Sink-Smith ticket seems to be the opposite of the Scott-Carroll campaign. Where Scott is strong in the Republican base regions of North and Southwest Florida but is weak in the I-4 corridor, the moderate Sink ticket is weaker in the traditional liberal strongholds of South Florida while holding an advantage in the swing areas. In summary, I believe both candidates could have made better selections to increase their prospects geographically, Scott could have selected a central Florida politician such as Tea Party darling Paula Dockery and Sink could have selected a South Florida grassroots favorite such as State Senator Dave Aronberg from Miami who just came in second in the Democratic Attorney General Primary.
No comments:
Post a Comment